It’s playoff chase time!
So who’s a shoo-in? Who’s teetering? Who will be left on the
outside looking in?
Here’s one baseball fan’s perspective:
American League
Detroit Tigers
In the American League, the cream of the crop has got to be the Detroit Tigers.
With apologies to the Oakland Athletics, who have owned
baseball’s best record almost all season, and the Los Angeles Angels of
Anaheim, the Tigers, in my opinion, will be a little too loaded for its competitors
come playoff time.
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| Tigers starting pitcher David Price - acquired July 31 |
Sure, Verlander has not been his six-time All-Star self yet
– having a well out of character 4.66 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. But he’s 31 years old,
he’s healthy and when he finds his groove again the Tigers will be all the
better for it.
As for the Tigers bullpen – well documented as its weak link
in recent years – the addition of Joakim Soria will help solidify its corps
enough to protect late leads … Joe Nathan, as with Verlander, has had a rough
go this year as well (5.31 ERA, 5 blown saves) and despite his struggles, he’s
remained the team’s closer. It’s my belief, though, that Soria usurps Nathan as
closer. But I do think the wily, 39-year-old will find himself again and he will
join Joba Chamberlain (2.93 ERA in 50 appearances) to become a valuable bridge
to Soria down the stretch.
As for Detroit’s offense: The Tigers look like a well-oiled
machine poised to destruct any opposing pitcher that stands in its way.
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| Tigers designated hitter Miguel Cabrera |
Miguel Cabrera remains one of the most imposing offensive
forces in baseball. The reigning MVP currently holds a .311 batting average,
has 36 doubles and 83 RBI. But as excellent as he’s been, I think his best is
yet to come for Cabrera – that’s just how good a hitter this guy is.
The Tigers have plenty of pop surrounding Cabrera as well.
Victor Martinez is having quite the renaissance year. The
11-year vet is batting .324 with 23 homers and 66 RBI. His on-base percentage
is .383 and he’s struck out a mere 33 times in 373 at-bats. It’s been the best
season Martinez has looked since 2010 (the end of a four-year stretch in which
he made three All-Star appearances), and batting fourth, one spot ahead of
Cabrera, V-Mart is providing superior protection to his team’s superstar.
In the five spot, Torii Hunter has been hitting very well of
late (.364, 6 HR, 24 RBI in July). Batting sixth, Tigers late-April pickup J.D.
Martinez has been a pleasant surprise – batting .312 with 15 HR and 48 RBI in
247 at-bats.
Detroit holds a 4.5-game lead on Kansas City in the Central.
But while KC is having a fine season, I expect the Tigers to extend its lead to
10 by season’s end. The Tigers, currently 62-48, finish the season as AL
Central champs at 92 wins, 70 losses.
Oakland Athletics
The A’s have set the bar in the American League this season.
The team has the most wins (69), the highest run total (551) and the
second-highest ERA (3.13).
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| Athletics starting pitcher Jon Lester - acquired July 31 |
On top of this, the A’s just stole away Boston ace Jon
Lester to add to its already supremely talented rotation. Yes, Oakland has
dominated on the field and in the minds of many of baseball’s top experts this
season.
Oakland, as always seems to be the case (at least in recent
memory), will be very, very tough to score runs against. Lester is expected to
headline a rotation featuring three starters in the AL’s top ten in ERA – Scott
Kazmir (fourth place, at 2.53), Lester (7th, 2.59) and Sonny Gray (9th, 2.87). The team also
has Jeff Samardzjia (2.91 ERA) and Jason Hammel, both acquired July 5 from the
Cubs.
(An interesting note on Samardzija: Samardzija began the season as the world’s preeminent hard luck loser. Boasting a 1.46 ERA through his first 10 starts despite an 0-4 record, he set a major league record for winless pitchers through their first 10 starts of a season ... So far with Oakland, he’s 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA in six starts.)
(An interesting note on Samardzija: Samardzija began the season as the world’s preeminent hard luck loser. Boasting a 1.46 ERA through his first 10 starts despite an 0-4 record, he set a major league record for winless pitchers through their first 10 starts of a season ... So far with Oakland, he’s 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA in six starts.)
In the A’s bullpen, closer Jim Johnson did not turn out as
expected – he was a disaster, in fact (a 7.14 ERA in 40.1 innings pitched). But
the team remedied Johnson’s failure by promoting Sean Doolittle, who has filled
in admirably with a 2.49 ERA, a microscopic 0.63 WHIP and 71 strikeouts in 50.2
IP.
The A’s also have plenty of arms surrounding Doolittle in
the pen. Fernando Abad has made 53 appearances with a 1.83 ERA, Luke Gregerson
has a 1.84 ERA through 53.2 IP, and Dan Otero has been a stalwart with a 2.25
ERA and a team-high 64 innings pitched.
Offensively is where Oakland could begin to crumble a bit.
Not that the A’s will go from league leaders to pushovers,
but …
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| Ex-Athletics outfielder Yoenis Cespedes |
In acquiring Lester, the A’s surrendered a really valuable
chip. The team gave up its cleanup hitter, home run derby champ Yoenis
Cespedes. The 28-year-old defector of Cuba batted .256 with 17 home runs and 67
RBI prior to his July 30 trade to Boston. But while those are nice power
numbers, it’s his presence that Oakland
will miss. Brandon Moss (23 HR, 72 RBI) has been great, but Cespedes’ cannon in
the outfield and menacing plate presence is irreplaceable.
By season’s end Oakland will most likely
finish with baseball’s best pitching staff. And with the additions of Lester
and Samardzija, that is obviously the plan.
Yes, pitching wins in the postseason and the A’s sure are
loaded … But, will the team’s offense be good enough to stack up against the
Tigers and or the team’s division rival Los Angeles Angels?
Oakland outlasts the Angels for the AL West pennant. The
team makes it to its third consecutive postseason, finishing its regular season
with a 94-68 record.
Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim)
After a relatively slow start to its season, the Angels are
on fire as of late – winning 15 of its past 24 games and narrowing its gap
against division-leading Oakland to a mere one game.
The team’s strength is undoubtedly its offense. Led by its
star centerfielder, Mike Trout, LA has led the majors in runs scored since the
beginning of July.
Trout has been sensational of late. The 25-year-old leads
his team in nearly every offensive category. Moreover, his on-base percentage
(.394), slugging percentage (.586), home runs (25), runs (78) and RBI (81) all
rank among the top five in the AL. He’s also batting .305 and ranks second in
the league with 33 doubles.
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| Angels centerfielder Mike Trout |
One more Trout note and then I’ll move on … Trout’s WAR
(Wins Above Replacement) – a measurement of a player’s overall value to his
team (including defense and speed) - tops MLB at 6.3. That’s a healthy .7
margin above second-placed Troy Tulowitzki of Colorado.
Hitting behind Trout, Albert Pujols seems to be healthy and
is enjoying and fine season. The nine-time All-Star first baseman is batting
.277 with 21 HR and 70 RBI. Other than Pujols fellow infielders second baseman
Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick have contributed nicely as well: Aybar, a
first-time All-Star this year, has 23 doubles, 12 stolen bases and 52 RBI. Kendrick
has a .283 BA with 24 doubles and 47 RBI.
More offense? Right-fielder Kole Calhoun has blossomed in his second year, batting .280 with 11 homers and 32 RBI in 293 at-bats … and then there’s former AL MVP Josh Hamilton. Hamilton missed most of April and all of May, but he has provided steady production overall – batting .283 with 8 HR and 35 RBI in 244 at-bats. If Hamilton finds his power stroke, the Angels will be all the more formidable for it.
The Angels pitching has been okay this season. The team
ranks 14th in the majors in ERA (sixth in the AL), but, it has been
improving.
Taking the reigns as the team’s unofficial ace, Garret
Richards leads LA with 12 wins a 2.58 ERA. Jared Weaver, the team’s more
official ace, shares Richards’ win total, but it’s Richards who’s shown the
most dominant this season.
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| Angels starting pitcher Garret Richards |
Los Angeles’ first-round pick in 2009, Richards has
progressed impressively from last year. In 2013, his first season of any
tangible workload (145 innings pitched), Richards made 17 starts. He finished
7-8 with a 4.16 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP and 101 strikeouts. This season, he currently
boasts a 1.02 ERA and has 152 strikeouts already. The man has been impressive; most
recently evidenced by his complete-game win over Zack Greinke and the Dodgers
this past Monday.
Leading the Angels pitching with Richards is Weaver, whom I
meant no disrespect for earlier. Weaver’s definitely had fine campaign as well.
The team’s three-time All-Star is 12-6 with a 3.59 ERA in 150.1 innings pitched.
Behind him and Richards, the Angels rotation is decent; but it’s not the kind
that rivals either Detroit or Oakland.
The Angels bullpen had its struggles earlier this season,
but has been shored up of late. The team signed Jason Grilli in late August.
The team then really made a splash, signing Padres closer Huston Street on July
18th. Buried in the depths of a poor Padres team, Street has been
dominant this year – saving 30 games in 31 chances. So far with the Angels, he’s
6 for 6 in saves with no earned runs allowed.
Joe Smith (4-0, 1.83 ERA) and Kevin Jepsen (1.74 ERA, 56 K
in 46.2 IP) have been reliable relievers for Los Angeles as well.
I’m buying the Angels as a wildcard with a decent shot of
making some noise in the playoffs this year. LA finishes with a 92-70 record, 2
games behind the Oakland.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have been on quite a tear lately. After spending
its first half of the season in mediocrity, the team’s won 21 of its last 31
games.
While the O’s have a very talented lineup, it's the team’s
pitching that has led the way as of late and that could lead them to wins in
the postseason.
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| Orioles starting pitcher Wei-Yin Chen |
Baltimore’s pitching staff has no big names whatsoever. The
current rotation, however, does have five guys who’ve been pretty effective in
recent weeks.
Led by the efforts of Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud
Norris and closer Zach Britton, Baltimore ranked fourth in baseball for team ERA
in the month of July.
Tillman has given up three earned runs or fewer over his
last 11 starts. Chen leads the team in overall wins (12) and earned wins for
five straight starts prior to Wednesday. Norris, meanwhile, has been steady all
season - posting nine wins and owning the best ERA among O’s starters at 3.68.
As for Britton: Since being promoted to closer in mid-May, the
26-year-old has 23 saves in 26 attempts with a 2.16 ERA.
Nelson Cruz leads the Orioles offense with 29 home runs and
77 RBI. However, the All-Star slugger has cooled off mightily since the
All-Star break – batting .104 (just seven hits in 67 at-bats!) since July 18.
Fellow All-Star Adam Jones has not been too hot either – batting .133 with 2
RBI over his past seven games.
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| Orioles outfielders Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz |
I have no doubts, however, that Baltimore’s offense will be stronger
again as the playoffs approach … Cruz and Jones will eventually re-emerge.
Also, if Chris Davis – who has 19 homers and 54 RBI, but a .197 batting average
– can pick up his hitting consistence overall, the O’s offense will be all the
more dangerous for it.
I’m picking Baltimore to finish 85-77 and AL East champs.
However, I think the team’s pitchers have overachieved a little and it might a
challenge for them to match up with the wildcard winner.
Seattle Mariners
I’ve pondered my second wildcard choice over and over (and
over) again. And as much as I’d love to see my Kansas City Royals get it, my
scales of reality eventually tipped to Seattle.
Yes, the Mariners make the postseason and Felix Hernandez finally makes his first playoff
appearance.
Hernandez has been one of – if not thee – most consistent
pitchers in baseball for nearly a decade now. The problem has been his
surroundings – an offense mired toward the bottom of baseball nearly every
season. But, this season there’s been just enough Felix, just enough complementary
starters and bullpen, and just enough offense to nab that elusive playoff bid.
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| Mariners ace pitcher Felix Hernandez |
King Felix – as he’s known among baseball followers – has
always been excellent. However, he’s been especially spectacular as of late …
Following his start Tuesday against Atlanta, Hernandez has
15 consecutive starts throwing seven-plus innings while allowing no more than
two earned runs – setting a new MLB record for a streak of such pitching
prowess. Hernandez now not only holds the record– a record formerly held by Hall-Of-Famer
Tom Seaver (12 games in 1971) – he’s eclipsed Seaver by two games … Talk about
consistency! It’s simply remarkable. (Note:
King Felix will go for 16 straight this Monday, when Seattle hosts Toronto.)
As you could imagine, Hernandez leads Mariners pitching in almost
every statistical category imaginable. As for the American League overall
rankings, he’s either at the top or very near it – Hernandez leads the lead in
ERA and WHIP, at 1.97 and 0.88, respectively, and ranks second in both innings
pitched (179.1) and strikeouts (186).
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| Mariners starting pitcher Chris Young |
Pitching in around Felix (pun unintended) are fellow
starters Hisashi Iwakuma (9 wins, 2.94 ERA) and Chris Young, as well as
relievers Tom Wilhelmsen (2.21 ERA in 61 IP), Dominic Leone (2.14 ERA, 46.1
IP), Yoervis Medina (17 holds, 2.31 ERA) and closer Fernando Rodney (31 saves,
2.36 ERA) … Young – a nine-year veteran – is having his best season since his
lone All-Star appearance, in 2007. Young is currently 10-6 with a 3.27 ERA
through 134.2 innings pitched. In ’07, the crafty righthander posted a 9-8
record with a 3.12 ERA for the Padres.
Seattle’s offense currently ranks 26th in all of
baseball. So as good as their pitching is, the Mariners offense is bound to
slow them down come October.
I’m predicting a final record of 84-78 for the M’s. Thereby
edging out the Royals, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays for AL wildcard
No. 2.
* Note: All statistics
in this column are as of end of play on Wednesday, August 6th.
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